In a research note for KGI Securities that was obtained by MacRumors, Kuo said that he doesn't expect supply-demand balance to level out until the first half of 2018 is over:
We believe the fullscreen design and facial recognition features will drive replacement demand for the iPhone X. However, due to supply constraints, we expect market demand won't be fully met before 1H18. We revise down our forecast for 2017F iPhone X shipments from 45-50 million to around 40 million units, but we therefore revise up our 2018 iPhone X shipment estimate to 80-90 million units.
He also speculated that this supply shortage is part of the reason iPhone X won't be available for preorder until the end of October - the other reason, of course, being that Apple wouldn't want the iPhone X to impede iPhone 8 and 8 Plus sales.
In another earlier research note shortly before the Apple Event, Kuo also mentioned supply constraints:
Due to component supply constraints, we estimate current production of the OLED iPhone at less than 10k units per day, which means the model will remain in severe short supply for a while.
We saw a similar predicament with Apple's AirPods. After their (delayed) release in December 2016, they were nearly impossible to acquire from Apple Stores or Apple's website until very recently, causing many consumers to resort to purchasing them from third-party sellers (and even that was difficult). In the press release for Apple's earnings call released on August 1, Tim Cook said that Apple was still struggling to meet the high demand.
In layman's terms, if you miss out on October 27th's preorder, it may be pretty hard to get your hands on an iPhone X for awhile.
Thoughts? Questions?
How do you feel about Ming-Chi Kuo's projections? Do you think Apple's new flagship model is worth the wait? Let us know in the comments!
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